← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 42% | 46% | 2.36 | value: +9% |
| FC Augsburg win | 32% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.24 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟥 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kristijan Jakić · FC Augsburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Fredrik Jensen · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pep Biel · FC Augsburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kristijan Jakić · FC Augsburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 15.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1681.07 | 1666.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.83 | 34.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.36 |