← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Bochum win | 22% | 24% | 4.38 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 8' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Bochum |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Patrick Osterhage · Bochum |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days | 44.00 | 562.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.87 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1632.72 | 1633.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.15 | -12.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -2.11 | -2.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 29.55 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 2.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.33 |