← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 66% | 65% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.89 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 14% | 15% | 6.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| RB Leipzig +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 44% | 2.48 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 18' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln |
| 49' | 🟨 | Max Finkgräfe · 1. FC Köln |
| 62' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 66' | 🟨 | Faride Alidou · 1. FC Köln |
| 67' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | ⚽ | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 72' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 82' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Cologne Stadium |
| coach days | 74.00 | 835.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1640.55 | 1868.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.77 | 9.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.89 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 26.63 |
| state index | -0.26 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.92 |