← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 39% | 47% | 2.57 | value: +21% |
| SC Freiburg win | 34% | 26% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| SC Freiburg +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Bochum |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 36' | ⚽ | Maximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Maximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ivan Ordets · Bochum |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 82' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 🟨 |
| Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 83' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 556.00 | 4483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1642.58 | 1739.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.82 | 6.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -2.02 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 30.07 | 28.22 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.68 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 2.02 |