← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 3, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 50% | 53% | 1.95 | value: +4% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 57% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 43% | 2.80 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand