← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 44% | 41% | 2.27 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 14' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 50' | ⚽ | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 58' | 🟨 | Waldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart |
| 77' | ⚽ | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 83' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lukas Nmecha · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 1.00 | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1693.89 | 1786.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.84 | 45.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 25.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 1.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 25.38 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 2.01 |