← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 39% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 33% | 29% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.41 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Junior Dina Ebimbe · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 31' | 🟨 | Robin Koch · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Benedikt Gimber · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 49' | ⚽ | Niels Nkounkou · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 59' | ⚽ | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
| 62' | 🟨 | Eren Dinkçi · Heidenheim |
| 77' | 🟨 | Hugo Ekitiké · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kevin Trapp · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 6027.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1654.94 | 1737.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.74 | -11.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 28.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 25.56 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.44 |