← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 58% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Bochum win | 21% | 22% | 4.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Bochum +0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 43% | 2.71 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 30' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · RB Leipzig |
| 38' | 🟨 | Moritz Broschinski · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 66' | 🟨 | Noah Loosli · Bochum |
| 68' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Ivan Ordets · RB Leipzig |
| 72' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ivan Ordets · Bochum |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.55 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 🟥 |
| Moritz-Broni Kwarteng · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 548.00 | 822.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1653.31 | 1855.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.49 | -17.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| league points | 25.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -2.22 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 29.14 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.83 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.07 |