← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 1, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 65% | 59% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +4% |
| SC Freiburg win | 16% | 20% | 6.23 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| SC Freiburg +1 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 36% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 35' | ⚽ | Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 79' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Pavlovic · FC Bayern München |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 4474.00 | 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1722.24 | 1964.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.02 | -20.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 5.04 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 28.37 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.94 |