← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 55% | 57% | 1.81 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 24% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Bayern München −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 64% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Pavlovic · FC Bayern München |
| 41' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 56' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 67' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.56 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Fußball Arena München |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 360.00 | 815.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1958.57 | 1860.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.32 | -22.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| league points | 50.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 29.01 | 26.50 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.25 |