← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Feb 23, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 74% | 76% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 10% | 8% | 10.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand