← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 70% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.75 | fair |
| Bochum win | 13% | 13% | 7.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| FC Bayern München +1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 70% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 30% | 3.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 38' | ⚽ | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 39' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München |
| 44' | ⚽ | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Bochum |
| 50' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kim Min-jae · FC Bayern München |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München |
| 77' | 🟥 | Dayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München |
| 78' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 26 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 87' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 535.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1650.55 | 1974.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.30 | -26.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 22.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 1.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.77 | 27.68 |
| state index | 0.26 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.77 |