← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 48% | 56% | 2.00 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 25% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Sepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Finn Dahmen · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 16.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1630.70 | 1636.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.22 | 13.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 27.18 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.39 |