β Bundesliga 2023-24 Β· Sat, Feb 17, 02:30 PM UTC Β· ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.77 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin β0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim β0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | π¨ | Stanley N'Soki Β· TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | π¨ | Stanley N'Soki Β· TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | π₯ | Stanley N'Soki Β· TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | π¨ | Danilho Doekhi Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 45' | π¨ | Kevin Volland Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 45' | π¨ | Kevin Volland Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 45' | π₯ | Kevin Volland Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 84' | β½ | Brenden Aaronson Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 86' | π¨ | Pavel KadeΕΓ‘bek Β· TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 89' | π¨ | Diogo Leite Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 381.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1683.83 | 1701.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.29 | 3.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -1.10 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 27.57 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.00 |