← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 64% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 16% | 13% | 6.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt +1.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alexander Brunst · Darmstadt |
| 14' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Darmstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟥 | Pascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart |
| 67' | 🟨 | Christoph Zimmermann · Darmstadt |
| 67' | 🟨 | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 71' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Julian Justvan · Darmstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Dahoud · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aaron Seydel · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 961.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1498.34 | 1716.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.09 | 18.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.90 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | -1.47 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.82 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.67 |