← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Feb 16, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 39% | 45% | 2.47 | value: +10% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 32% | 28% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 26' | 🟨 | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Justin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Julián Malatini · SV Werder Bremen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cologne Stadium |
| coach days |
| 46.00 |
| 837.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1579.56 | 1606.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.71 | 35.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 5.13 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.50 | — |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.21 |