← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 55% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 21% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 42% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ihlas Bebou · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 55' | 🟨 | Benno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln |
| 78' | 🟨 | Anton Stach · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 79' | ⚽ | Max Finkgräfe · 1. FC Köln |
| 81' | 🟨 | Florian Grillitsch · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 84' | 🟨 | Max Finkgräfe · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 375.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1686.66 | 1645.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.91 | 0.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 25.30 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.03 |