← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 56% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 22% | 27% | 4.42 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Augsburg +0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 60% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · FC Augsburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 52' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Kristijan Jakić · FC Augsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 81' | 🟨 | Finn Dahmen · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Mbabu · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 132.00 | 801.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 4.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1632.00 | 1858.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.36 | -45.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 22.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | -1.08 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.67 |