← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 45% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.84 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 54% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 46% | 2.44 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Maximilian Beier · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 58' | ⚽ | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Grischa Prömel · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 69' | 🟨 | Stanley N'Soki · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Brooks · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 583.00 | 368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1696.96 | 1684.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.01 | -24.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 28.67 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 2.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 2.02 |