← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 39% | 35% | 2.57 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 32% | 36% | 3.03 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 50% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 50% | 2.21 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
| 34' | 🟨 | Tuta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 55' | 🟨 | Niels Nkounkou · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Niels Nkounkou · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 66' | 🟥 | Niels Nkounkou · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 67' | ⚽ | Faride Alidou · 1. FC Köln |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 83' | 🟨 | Tuta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 83' | 🟥 | Tuta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Cologne Stadium |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 33.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1626.92 | 1767.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.85 | 16.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.56 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -1.33 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.99 | 25.38 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.07 |