β Bundesliga 2023-24 Β· Sat, Feb 3, 02:30 PM UTC Β· ref: P. Ittrich
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bochum win | 40% | 42% | 2.45 | value: +4% |
| FC Augsburg win | 32% | 29% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Augsburg β0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Bochum β0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.16 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand