← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 28, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 70% | 73% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.83 | fair |
| Bochum win | 13% | 10% | 7.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 66% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Manuel Riemann · Bochum |
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Nico Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 56' | 🟨 | Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 59' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 72' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Paciência · Bochum |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | BVB Stadion Dortmund |
| coach days | 576.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1826.00 | 1584.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.43 | 13.24 |
| eye test v1 | 1.61 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.40 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.77 | — |
| state index | 1.01 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.46 | 1.33 |