← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 55% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 20% | 23% | 5.03 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Faride Alidou · 1. FC Köln |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Benno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dženan Pejčinović · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 575.00 |
| 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1630.28 | 1554.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.87 | -30.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.88 |