← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 38% | 34% | 2.55 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 37% | 43% | 2.70 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| RB Leipzig +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 64% | 1.62 | value: +4% |
| Under | 41% | 36% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig |
| 16' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 30' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 32' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | 🟨 | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 55' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 56' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 69' | 🟨 | Waldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart |
| 75' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stuttgart Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 79' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 301.00 | 787.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1740.77 | 1873.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.38 | -12.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 2.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 34.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 20.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 1.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 25.16 | 25.00 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 2.65 |