← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 51% | 51% | 1.89 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 26% | 27% | 3.83 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 61% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 39% | 2.82 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 27' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · Borussia Dortmund |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund |
| 61' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ian Maatsen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Youssoufa Moukoko · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Cologne Stadium |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 19.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1563.61 | 1816.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.21 | -15.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 45.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 11.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 27.03 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.91 |