← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 48% | 48% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.57 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 25% | 24% | 3.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Silvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 12' | ⚽ | Václav Černý · Wolfsburg |
| 16' | 🟨 | Aster Vranckx · Wolfsburg |
| 27' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · Wolfsburg |
| 46' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Koen Casteels · Wolfsburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Edimilson Fernandes · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Silvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days | 73.00 | 561.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1654.92 | 1700.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.68 | -9.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 24.79 | 23.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.10 | 26.02 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 0.87 |