← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 63% | 58% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.80 | value: +6% |
| FC Augsburg win | 17% | 20% | 5.89 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Augsburg +1.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 38% | 2.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 2 | Shots | 25 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 12 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand