← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Wed, Dec 20, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 66% | 69% | 1.50 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.08 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 15% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| FC Bayern München +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 65% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 35% | 2.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · Wolfsburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Pavlovic · FC Bayern München |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 43' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 46' | 🟨 | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 537.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1704.75 | 1993.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.48 | 0.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 2.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 2.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 3.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 2.04 |
| solidity v1 | -0.82 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 27.49 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 2.81 |