← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Wed, Dec 20, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 70% | 70% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.45 | value: +6% |
| FC Augsburg win | 12% | 11% | 8.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −1.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| VfB Stuttgart −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 18' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 62' | 🟨 | Robert Gumny · FC Augsburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stuttgart Arena |
| coach days | 263.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1759.06 | 1631.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.66 | 8.15 |
| eye test v1 | 1.62 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 31.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 26.51 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.59 | 1.32 |