← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 19, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 64% | 68% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 16% | 12% | 6.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −1.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 23' | ⚽ | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ihlas Bebou · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 49' | 🟨 | Robert Skov · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 57' | ⚽ | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ihlas Bebou · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ihlas Bebou · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 81' |
| 🟨 |
| Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt |
| 85' | ⚽ | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 321.00 | 901.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1703.58 | 1550.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.77 | -17.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 23.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.50 | 27.05 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.62 |