← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 61% | 63% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.71 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 18% | 17% | 5.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +1 | 52% | 1.91 |
| SV Werder Bremen +1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 68% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 32% | 2.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 75' | ⚽ | Justin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Justin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 778.00 | 748.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1631.77 | 1904.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.78 | 14.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 2.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 22.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 2.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.02 | 1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 3.03 |