← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 51% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.72 | value: +24% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 23% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 57% | 1.96 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Dejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 62' | 🟥 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| coach days | 4399.00 | 899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1772.99 | 1652.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.42 | 3.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 25.70 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 2.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.01 |