← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 35% | 35% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Patrick Osterhage · Bochum |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 45' | ⚽ | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 54' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Paciência · Bochum |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 471.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1629.84 | 1701.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.58 | -32.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.67 | 29.07 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.10 |