← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 9, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 53% | 45% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.96 | value: +8% |
| Darmstadt win | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 52' | ⚽ | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Lennard Maloney · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Darmstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Eren Dinkçi · Heidenheim |
| 69' | ⚽ | Patrick Mainka · Heidenheim |
| 71' | ⚽ | Patrick Mainka · Heidenheim |
| 81' | 🟨 | Emir Karić · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 5943.00 | 891.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1549.37 | 1516.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.21 | -19.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -1.10 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.44 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 2.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.59 |