← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 8, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 54% | 53% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +22% |
| Bochum win | 22% | 18% | 4.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Erhan Mašović · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 42' | 🟨 | Umut Tohumcu · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 43' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 51' | 🟨 | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 53' | 🟨 | Grischa Prömel · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 60' | 🟨 | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 63' | 🟨 | Manuel Riemann · Bochum |
| 76' | ⚽ | Ihlas Bebou · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Paciência · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 310.00 | 463.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1699.32 | 1639.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.72 | 26.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 29.48 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.61 |