← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 37% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 36% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Wolfsburg +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.16 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Patrick Osterhage · Bochum |
| 21' | 🟨 | Aster Vranckx · Wolfsburg |
| 36' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 39' | ⚽ | Bernardo · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · Wolfsburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cristian Gamboa · Bochum |
| 86' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 87' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| Christopher Antwi-Adjei · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 457.00 | 519.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1623.14 | 1723.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.21 | -28.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.74 | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.15 |