← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 50% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 26% | 25% | 3.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Wolfsburg +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 65% | 1.64 | value: +6% |
| Under | 40% | 35% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · Wolfsburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 59' | 🟨 | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Rogério · Wolfsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Koen Casteels · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 26 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 512.00 | 724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1710.03 | 1897.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.37 | -11.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 12.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 1.44 |
| solidity v1 | -1.52 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 25.67 |
| state index | -0.32 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 2.17 |