← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 62% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.55 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 16% | 20% | 6.28 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Freiburg −1 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Darmstadt −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand