← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 39% | 32% | 2.49 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 36% | 39% | 2.74 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Gregor Kobel · Borussia Dortmund |
| 15' | 🟨 | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 15' | 🟨 | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 36' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund |
| 42' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 59' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stuttgart Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 224.00 | 498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1728.40 | 1912.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.40 | -3.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.03 | 1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.06 | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.82 |