← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 48% | 43% | 2.03 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 27% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 25' | ⚽ | Jordan Siebatcheu · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 29' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 37' | 🟨 | Philipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Julian Weigl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 50' | 🟨 | Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Noah Weißhaupt · SC Freiburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luca Netz · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julian Weigl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 4356.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1765.36 | 1692.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.58 | -3.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.23 | 25.42 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.46 |