← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Nov 3, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 41% | 44% | 2.37 | value: +5% |
| Bochum win | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 42' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 43' | ⚽ | Fabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt |
| 54' | ⚽ | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 66' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Darmstadt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cristian Gamboa · Bochum |
| 68' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 69' | 🟥 | Fabian Holland · Darmstadt |
| 87' | 🟨 | Moritz-Broni Kwarteng · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 🟨 |
| Gonçalo Paciência · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 855.00 | 428.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1579.10 | 1612.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.80 | -16.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -1.07 |
| solidity v1 | -3.16 | -2.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 30.28 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.54 | 2.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.96 |