← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 58% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.43 | value: +13% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 20% | 20% | 4.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 59% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Grischa Prömel · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 17' | 🟨 | Kevin Akpoguma · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 21' | 🟨 | Anthony Rouault · VfB Stuttgart |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Wout Weghorst · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 61' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | ⚽ | Robert Skov · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 73' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stuttgart Arena |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 210.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1760.92 | 1705.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 75.77 | 21.77 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.63 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 1.30 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 28.49 |
| state index | 1.72 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.65 |