← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 90% | 88% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 10% | 17.61 | value: +71% |
| Darmstadt win | 4% | 2% | 32.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −3 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Darmstadt −3 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81% | 76% | 1.17 | fair |
| Under | 19% | 24% | 5.00 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟥 | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 21' | 🟥 | Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt |
| 38' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München |
| 41' | 🟥 | Matej Maglica · Darmstadt |
| 49' | 🟨 | Matthias Bader · Darmstadt |
| 51' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 56' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 64' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt |
| 69' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 10 |
| 16 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Fußball Arena München |
| ⚽ |
| Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 71' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 88' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 241.00 | 849.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1913.18 | 1535.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.05 | 12.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.97 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.10 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 1.25 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.49 | — |
| state index | 1.72 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 2.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.66 | 1.51 |