← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 39% | 34% | 2.54 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 35% | 37% | 2.80 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Wolfsburg +0 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 43% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 17' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · FC Augsburg |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Sebastiaan Bornauw · FC Augsburg |
| 81' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Arne Engels · FC Augsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dion Drena Beljo · FC Augsburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg |
| 87' | 🟥 | Felix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 27.00 | 484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1536.48 | 1671.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.41 | -3.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.05 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.37 |