← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 39% | 34% | 2.52 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 35% | 33% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.75 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 65% | 1.69 | value: +10% |
| Under | 42% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 63' | ⚽ | Nico Elvedi · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 72' | 🟥 | Manu Koné · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 74' | 🟨 | Moritz Nicolas · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Scally · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Cologne Stadium |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 843.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1639.96 | 1701.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.12 | -1.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.14 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -1.41 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 25.72 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 2.06 |