← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 55% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +8% |
| Wolfsburg win | 22% | 20% | 4.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Wolfsburg +0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 39% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand