← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 53% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 22% | 31% | 4.66 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Augsburg −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 55% | 1.93 | value: +7% |
| Under | 49% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Robert Gumny · FC Augsburg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Darmstadt |
| 52' | ⚽ | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sven Michel · FC Augsburg |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 6.00 | 828.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1599.55 | 1575.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.57 | -4.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | -3.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.29 |