← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 42% | 38% | 2.30 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 33% | 33% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 51% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 49% | 2.46 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Matthias Bader · Darmstadt |
| 25' | ⚽ | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 31' | 🟨 | Senne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fabian Holland · Darmstadt |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 70' | ⚽ | Olivier Deman · SV Werder Bremen |
| 78' | ⚽ | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bartol Franjić · Darmstadt |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 🟨 |
| Olivier Deman · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 822.00 | 699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1515.60 | 1564.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.17 | 5.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -3.01 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.49 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.92 |