← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 54% | 47% | 1.79 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 24% | 28% | 4.11 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Bayern München +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 36% | 3.12 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 26' | ⚽ | Castello Lukeba · RB Leipzig |
| 38' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sven Ulreich · FC Bayern München |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 64' | 🟨 | Castello Lukeba · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Leipzig Stadium |
| 81' |
| 🟨 |
| Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 668.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 4.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1908.06 | 1979.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.66 | 11.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 2.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 13.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 22.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 2.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.40 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 27.79 |
| state index | 1.72 | 2.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 3.05 |