← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 84% | 88% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.50 | fair |
| Bochum win | 5% | 4% | 21.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −2.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Bayern München −2.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78% | 73% | 1.22 | fair |
| Under | 22% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München |
| 12' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 26' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 29' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München |
| 38' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 81' | ⚽ | Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München |
| 88' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 4 |
| 16 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Fußball Arena München |
| coach days | 206.00 | 387.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.76 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1975.06 | 1628.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.51 | 18.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.84 | 29.48 |
| state index | 1.66 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.31 | 1.35 |